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Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2025 Economic Outlook: Steady Growth Amid Global Uncertainty

Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2025 Economic Outlook: Steady Growth Amid Global Uncertainty

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook (IMF, 2025). The report highlights a region maintaining economic momentum despite global challenges, including fluctuating commodity prices, higher borrowing costs, and changes in trade flows (IMF, 2025).


Regional Overview

Indicator 2025 Projection Source / Notes
Regional GDP Growth 4.1% IMF 2025 Regional Economic Outlook
Inflation Varies by country Driven by food and energy prices (IMF, 2025)
Fiscal Balance Mixed Importance of revenue mobilization emphasized (IMF, 2025)
External Risks High Commodity price volatility, global trade uncertainty, aid fluctuations (IMF, 2025)

Economic momentum is supported by policy reforms, infrastructure investment, and diversification in several countries. However, resource-dependent economies and conflict-affected regions face slower growth and limited per-capita income gains (IMF, 2025).


Country Snapshots

Rwanda

  • Key growth drivers: Technology, regional trade, and investment (IMF, 2025).

Ethiopia

  • Key growth drivers: Infrastructure and industrial expansion (IMF, 2025).

Uganda

    • Key growth drivers: Agriculture, services, and renewable energy (IMF, 2025).

    • Notes: Diversification efforts help buffer against global shocks.

Côte d’Ivoire & Benin

  • Key growth drivers: Transport and energy projects (IMF, 2025).

Resource-Dependent & Conflict-Affected Countries

  • Key challenge: Vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations (Reuters, 2025).


Policy Recommendations

The IMF emphasizes (IMF, 2025):

  • Fiscal discipline: Strengthening revenue collection and managing debt sustainably.

  • Inclusive growth: Policies to ensure benefits reach broader populations.

  • Economic diversification: Reducing reliance on volatile commodities.

  • Human capital investment: Education, healthcare, and infrastructure to enhance resilience.


Outlook for 2026

The IMF projects a modest acceleration in growth next year if reform efforts continue (IMF, 2025). The report notes that Sub-Saharan Africa’s trajectory remains sensitive to global conditions and domestic policy decisions.

Kingfisher Project Hits Key Milestones Under CNOOC Leadership

Kingfisher Project Hits Key Milestones Under CNOOC Leadership

 

World Business Journal talks to Liu Xiangdong, President of CNOOC Uganda, about the progress made in drilling operations, leveraging technology and innovation with the LR8001 rig to optimise resource extraction, and how the company is implementing national content strategies to benefit local communities.

What recent progress has been made in the drilling operations and the development of operational support infrastructure at the Kingfisher Development Area (KFDA)?

At KFDA, the overall project progress for surface engineering is 85.77%, and we have completed three out of the four well pads, with wells already drilled on those three pads. Civil works have commenced on the 4th well pad. The construction of the Central Processing Facility is on schedule, and the ongoing work includes tank welding and installation, equipment installations, and infield flow lines.

Currently, 13 out of the 31 wells have been drilled successfully, reaching target depth without incident, and we are ahead of schedule in this regard.

How is the LR8001 rig transforming resource extraction in the oil and gas industry while prioritising environmental sustainability?

As Africa’s first fully automated, 8,000-meter silent land rig, LR8001 features a full-site noise reduction system, zero discharge capabilities, and a fully automated pipe handling system—ensuring reduced emissions, low noise pollution, and minimal ecological disruption.

Photo Credit_CNOOC Uganda

These technologies enable safe, integrated operations across various well types while preserving the surrounding environment. This marks a significant step in promoting green, low-carbon, and intelligent oilfield development in alignment with sustainable development goals.

How do CNOOC’s operations in Uganda leverage national content strategies to benefit local communities, enhance local skill sets, and contribute to broader economic development in the country?

Our operations are directly benefiting local SMEs and spurring economic growth. Through the various contracts awarded under the EPC packages, we have engaged over 1,700 Ugandans, providing income and upskilling opportunities.

64% of our workforce and over 78% of project personnel, including contractors and subcontractors, are Ugandans.

Our social programmes have implemented community engagement initiatives to improve economic welfare and skills development, benefiting over 1,000 individuals through training in heavy goods vehicle operation, ECITB certifications (pipe fitting, electrical work), tailoring, welding, and enterprise development.

In education, we have awarded cash prizes to over 1,148 students in Hoima and Kikuube districts and provided international scholarships to 11 students for studies in China.

Uganda’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Role of BRICS and Diaspora Networks in National Development

Uganda’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Role of BRICS and Diaspora Networks in National Development

World Business Journal talks to Gen. Odongo Jeje Abubakhar, the Minister of Foreign Affairs at MoFA, about diplomatic missions to improve bilateral relations with key partners and advance the nation’s interests globally, while also highlighting the economic benefits of BRICS membership and initiatives to leverage diaspora engagement for national growth.

How is Uganda strengthening bilateral relations with key partners to support its growing value-added exports and market access needs?

Our 39 diplomatic missions play a crucial role in advocating for the nation’s interests on the global stage.

Engagements with international organisations, such as the Group of 77 (G77), the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), as well as our recent inclusion as a partner state in BRICS, facilitate valuable exchanges of business opportunities and collaboration.

Through platforms like the Joint Ministerial (JMC) and Joint Permanent Commissions (JPC), we actively negotiate for improved market access for our products. For instance, our collaboration with Algeria has enabled successful exports of milk, while negotiations with Tanzania have cut transit fees for trucks from $500 to $142 and secured an additional 10,000 tonnes of sugar.

These collaborations improve access to international markets, enable the acquisition of hard-to-produce products and foster technology transfers.

What are the key objectives and expected benefits from BRICS membership?

Historically, Africa has struggled to secure development funding due to politicisation. BRICS offers an opportunity for uninhibited access to investment. For example, in September last year, China committed $50B for African investments, free from political ties. This funding can be directed toward infrastructure, trade, and connectivity projects.

The global economy is shifting, as dollar reserves have decreased from 70% to under 40% in 20 years and the combined GDP of Europe, the U.S., and Japan has fallen from over 40% to 23%. Meanwhile, the BRICS nations’ share of global GDP has increased to about 33%.

BRICS membership is expected to facilitate access to essential resources, strengthen international ties, and support sustainable economic development, benefiting the nation and the broader Global South.

In what ways are diaspora networks influencing economic growth and development back home?

We recognise the crucial role of Ugandans abroad in driving our nation’s development. To leverage this potential, we have conducted diaspora meetings in key regions, including the Middle East, Europe, and the USA. Participants have expressed concerns about unclear property ownership through intermediaries.

To address this, we encourage the formation of business associations that can pool resources for collective investment. We are also developing initiatives to incentivise diaspora engagement, focusing on co-investment opportunities that yield tangible benefits for Uganda. Through these partnerships, we aim to mobilise capital and strengthen the diaspora’s contribution to our economic growth.

India–EFTA Trade Pact Takes Effect, $100 Billion Investment Expected

India–EFTA Trade Pact Takes Effect, $100 Billion Investment Expected

 

New Delhi, Oct. 1, 2025 —India and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) formally launched their trade partnership this Wednesday under the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), with EFTA pledging $100 billion in investment over 15 years, the EFTA Secretariat reported.

Signed in March 2024 after 16 years of negotiations and 21 rounds of talks, the agreement covers goods, services, investment, intellectual property, government procurement, competition, and sustainable development (EFTA Secretariat, 2024). Together, India and the EFTA countries — Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein — represent a combined GDP of about $5.4 trillion.

At the Prosperity Summit in New Delhi, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact aims to strengthen “resilient and reliable global supply chains” (Ministry of Commerce & Industry, India, 2024).

The deal reduces tariffs on 82.7% of India’s tariff lines, covering 95.3% of EFTA exports, while excluding sensitive sectors like dairy, soy, and coal. Swiss luxury goods and diamonds will see phased duty reductions, Reuters reported.

FTA’s investment is expected to generate approximately one million jobs in India over the next 15 years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Analysts caution that the pace of investment and careful monitoring of domestic industries will determine the deal’s overall success. “The $100 billion commitment is ambitious,” economist Biswajit Dhar told Indian Express (2024).

The agreement also includes provisions on intellectual property, government procurement, competition, and sustainable development, reflecting modern trade standards (EFTA, 2024). It aligns with India’s strategy to diversify trade beyond the U.S. and China, while EFTA members gain opportunities in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and financial services, and indirect access to broader European markets.

The entry into force of TEPA marks a milestone in India’s global trade strategy and sets the stage for deeper economic engagement with Europe, potentially shaping future agreements with other international partners.

Botswana to Launch Citizenship by Investment Program in 2026

Botswana to Launch Citizenship by Investment Program in 2026

Botswana will introduce its first-ever Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program in early 2026, developed in partnership with Arton Capital. The program aims to attract foreign investment to diversify the economy beyond diamonds, directing funds into housing, tourism, renewable energy, mining, and financial services (BotswanaCitizenship.com, 2025).

The minimum investment is expected to be $75,000–$90,000, with a structured quota system and eligibility checks. Spouses and dependent children are anticipated to qualify, consistent with global CBI norms (BotswanaCitizenship.com, 2025).

Global and African Context

Worldwide, Caribbean nations such as Saint Kitts and Nevis and Dominica have long-standing CBI programs, requiring investments above $200,000 and offering passports with visa-free access to 143–154 countries (IMI Daily, 2025). Malta’s program requires €600,000 for a 12-month residence period and provides access to 184 countries (Global Residence Index, 2025).

In Africa, São Tomé and Príncipe ($90,000), Seychelles ($1,000,000), and Egypt ($250,000) have similar programs, with passports offering varying degrees of visa-free travel (Passport Index, 2025). Botswana’s program is positioned as a more accessible, cost-effective option for investors while maintaining selectivity and economic impact.

Strategic Significance

While Botswana’s passport offers fewer visa-free destinations than some global programs, the lower investment threshold and focus on economic diversification make it an attractive gateway for investment migration in Africa.

Prospective applicants should consult BotswanaCitizenship.com for updates, eligibility, and registration information.

WBJ Uganda 2025 Edition Out Now

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WBJ Uganda 2025 Edition Out Now

World Business Journal, Uganda 2025 edition is an investment guide for executives, policymakers, and financiers seeking to understand one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Drawing on field reporting, sector data, and an exclusive interview with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the edition examines Uganda’s growth trajectory and the opportunities shaping its markets.

The publication covers Uganda’s main growth pillars: economy and investment, industrialisation, energy, finance, ICT, tourism, infrastructure, and housing. At the centre is the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which sets out to expand GDP from roughly USD 50 billion in 2023 to USD 500 billion by 2040, according to planning documents from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.

Uganda’s investment climate is assessed through both leadership perspectives and recent performance data. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached USD 2.99 billion in 2023, according to World Bank data. The Ugandan government has reported that by April 2024, cumulative FDI had climbed to USD 3.01 billion. These inflows mark Uganda as one of the stronger performers in East Africa.

From small enterprises to large companies, businesses across diverse industries are innovating, scaling up, and creating new opportunities. Industrial parks are becoming vibrant centers of employment, skills development, and regional trade, while entrepreneurs are reshaping markets and driving growth in ways that extend far beyond traditional sectors. Grassroots programmes such as the Parish Development Model are designed to shift millions of households from subsistence to commercial participation, widening the domestic market base.

For international investors, Uganda 2025 highlights where and why capital is flowing, how reforms are changing the operating environment, and the sectors likely to anchor Uganda’s economic transformation in the years ahead.

 

George William Nyombi Thembo on Ensuring Responsible Communication in a Digital Age

George William Nyombi Thembo on Ensuring Responsible Communication in a Digital Age

 

World Business Journal talks to George William Nyombi Thembo, Executive Director at the Uganda Communication Commission, about the expanding communication landscape, the barriers within the sector, and the need to balance freedom of expression with content regulation on social media.

 What are the latest trends and shifts shaping the communication landscape in Uganda?

Mobile subscriptions have risen to 41M, and mobile internet subscriptions have reached 19.5M. Mobile money registrations increased to 32M, while smartphone ownership grew to 18M. Feature phones were estimated at 26M and basic phones at 2.4M. The number of telecommunication towers climbed to 5,204, and licensed radio stations rose to 283. These trends indicate a robust expansion of mobile technology and media in the country.

How does UCC balance freedom of expression with content regulation on social media?

We acknowledge the importance of freedom of expression as enshrined in our constitution. Thus, UCC appreciates the role of social media platforms in promoting an informed citizenry and democratising information production and dissemination. However, while the constitution and other laws grant media rights and freedoms, these are not absolute. They must be exercised with responsibility, as others can get injured in the process. Therefore, in the exercise of their freedom to produce and share content, social media users must act within the boundaries of the laws and regulations pertaining to information dissemination.

How do you plan to support and foster innovation within the communication sector while balancing regulatory oversight and industry growth?

We are not only a regulator of the communications sector but also an enabler of communication services.

Therefore, regulatory activities such as licensing, spectrum allocation, and enforcement of laws, regulations, policies, guidelines and standards go hand in hand with interventions that seek to uplift the ICT sector through innovation and growth. In other words, innovation doesn’t have to come at the expense of standards and other UCC functions such as consumer protection.



Minister Musenero on Turning Research Into Products That Drive Economic Growth

Minister Musenero on Driving Economic Impact Through Science and Technology

 

World Business Journal talks to Hon. Monica Musenero Masanza, Minister of the Secretariat for Science, Technology, and Innovation, about bridging the gap between knowledge and market application to ensure that innovation visibly contributes to the economy. The discussion also covers how import data is used to analyse and prioritise products for local manufacturing and innovation, along with the latest updates on the Journey Program.

 How have scientific research, technological advancements, and innovative practices influenced economic progress?

Previously, science was primarily viewed through research, lacking a clear link to economic development. Now, we have clarified how research institutions, like universities and the Uganda Virus Research Institute, can intentionally drive economic growth. Facilities like Lwera have been established to bridge the gap between knowledge and market application. We now understand the process of transforming ideas into market-ready products, from conceptualisation to manufacturing and mass production, ensuring that innovations contribute effectively to the economy. As of June 2024, we contributed over $26M to the economy through our STI products and created a total of 50,000 jobs over the past four years, aiming to significantly amplify our impact moving forward.

How do you identify market gaps and prioritise products for local manufacturing?

We collaborate with government agencies to analyse import data, and our goal is to reduce our importation index from over 90% to 60%.

Our 3 key performance indicators are import substitution, export complexity, and productivity acceleration. We have encouraged institutions like Makerere University and the National Agriculture Research Organisation (NARO) to adopt a commercialisation mindset, allowing them to package and market their innovative products rather than just distribute them for subsistence farming. This shift is fostering economic growth by linking research with industry, resulting in successful exports and building trust in local capabilities.

Which companies have achieved maturity in their development phases through the Journey programme?

Kira Motors is now in phase three. We have marketed products and established the E-Bus Xpress, which is currently in service and generating income. The team is expanding and transitioning from a research focus to a professional manufacturing operation with an automated system. We now offer various models tailored to client needs and are actively seeking export markets to develop a mature brand. We’re committed to monitoring our technology to ensure reliability, having achieved a combined mileage of 700,000 km with our buses.

The Banana Project has received ISO certification and is adapting technology to boost export capacity. Currently, there is no automated machine for peeling matooke, which limits our volume despite high-quality products. We are developing a prototype machine with sensors for each banana finger, expected to be ready by year-end. This innovation could increase productivity tenfold at our pilot plant. We are in early phase three of this project.

Microhaem, Uganda’s first WHO-approved malaria diagnostic kit company, is expanding into HIV and TB diagnostics. This approval boosts our credibility and attracts support. 

Dei BioPharma is advancing to phase four, built on mature technologies and currently navigating regulatory approvals after manufacturing trial batches. They plan to supply the Ugandan government and aim for exports to neighbouring countries, starting with generics before moving into antibiotics, biosimilars, cancer drugs, and mRNA vaccines



Tourism and Conservation in Uganda: Insights from UWA Executive Director James Musinguzi

Tourism and Conservation in Uganda: Insights from UWA Executive Director James Musinguzi

World Business Journal talks to James Musinguzi, Executive Director, UWA, about opportunities being offered to domestic and international investors to develop and operate tourism accommodation in protected areas, maintaining the human-wildlife balance, and research work undertaken to aid wildlife and ecosystem management policies.

How is the escalating human-wildlife conflict being addressed, and what changes have been observed?

Human-wildlife interactions are major obstacles to wildlife conservation, mainly due to habitat loss from agricultural expansion. Historically, elephants migrated from Queen Elizabeth National Park to Kibaale Conservation Area, Murchison Falls National Park, and Sudan, but these corridors have been lost. 

We are working to rebuild corridors in the northern region to connect to Sudan. Establishing these corridors is a priority.

Two main factors contribute to wildlife confinement: population growth, resulting in the destruction of corridors, and environmental changes like climate change and invasive plant species that limit forage availability. 

Several interventions address these issues. Electric fencing, trenches, and boardwalks help confine animals. Community beekeeping not only provides honey but also deters elephants. Educating communities about wildlife behaviours and seasonal patterns mitigates conflicts. 

We are recruiting scientists to study animal behaviours and collaborate with sociologists to raise public awareness about wildlife movements. Wildlife scouts and rangers manage wildlife, and a compensation system has been established for damages caused by animals. 

What initiatives are in place to foster and facilitate partnerships with both domestic and international investors?

Investors are offered attractive opportunities to develop and operate tourism accommodation in protected areas. This enables both Ugandan and non-Ugandan investors to pursue long-term concessions of 25 years or more.

This year, we successfully signed three significant concession agreements with private investors to develop and manage high-end tourism infrastructure in Murchison Falls, Queen Elizabeth, and Kidepo Valley National Parks. 

Which key findings have emerged from the research and monitoring program?

Notable findings from the past year reveal a decline in lion populations, primarily driven by infanticide, where male lions kill their infant competitors. Current genetic studies are focused on assessing the genetic makeup of lions in Queen Elizabeth National Park and Murchison Falls National Park to support translocation efforts aimed at repopulating these areas.

Research also highlights population trends, indicating increases in elephants and gorillas. Rhinos are thriving in Ziwa Rhino Sanctuary, leading to a translocation plan to move them to Ajai Wildlife Reserve for improved habitat conditions. Research plays a crucial role in addressing invasive species, managing animal populations, and prioritising indigenous tree species for park restoration.

First Oil Timeline and Energy Reforms: Minister Nankabirwa Outlines the Road Ahead

 

First Oil Timeline and Energy Reforms: Minister Nankabirwa Outlines the Road Ahead

World Business Journal talks to Hon. Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, about the Petroleum Supplies Act, modern cooking solutions, UEDCL’s future after the Umeme buyout, first oil production timelines, and the upcoming licensing bidding round.

What prompted the amendment of the Petroleum Supplies Act to make UNOC the sole importer, and what effects has this had on fuel supply and prices?

The key objectives of amending the Petroleum Supplies Act to designate UNOC as the sole importer were twofold. First, the amendment aimed to maintain a steady fuel supply in Uganda, particularly during periods of political unrest, as the previous dependence on intermediaries frequently resulted in Ugandan OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) receiving less priority. This change has successfully guaranteed product availability nationwide.

Second, the amendment aimed to reduce fuel prices by eliminating unnecessary layers that inflated costs. This goal has also been met, with pump prices decreasing.

What is the latest on the Clean Cooking Unit and efforts to shift Ugandans to modern cooking fuels?

The Clean Cooking Unit, under the Renewable Energy Department, led by Dr. Brian Isabirye, is operational but still developing. Its focus is on facilitating the transition from traditional cooking methods to modern ones, addressing challenges in adaptation. Many Ugandans, even those with electricity, still rely on charcoal due to stigma and fear surrounding alternatives like Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). 

The unit has organised exhibitions to demonstrate modern cooking techniques and promote the benefits of these technologies. The government has subsidised these clean cooking solutions, making them affordable. Subsidies vary, with some technologies at 30% and others at 40%. This initiative is part of a $638M World Bank loan, which will be utilised over 4 years, starting this year.

What advantages will the shift from UMEME to UEDCL offer?

UEDCL is transitioning away from the previous Umeme model, which operated on a 20% return on investment. The transition is expected to bring significant benefits, including lower electricity costs, improved reliability, and better service quality.

The government will provide $50M in funding for the first year, with plans for this support to continue over the next 5 years.

UEDCL will also seek a joint venture partner to inject expertise and capital into distribution improvements.

Is the oil and gas sector on track to meet the target for first oil production in 2025, and will the third licensing round still take place in June 2025?

Due to global challenges and financing delays, we have adjusted our expectations for first oil production to 2026 or early 2027, while still proceeding with the third licensing round this year, focusing on the Moroto Basin, Lake Kyoga Basin, and Hoima Basin.

What is the status of the grid stability study and floating solar panels?

The grid stability study and the evaluation of floating solar panels are set to be finalised by Q3. The grid study will help determine how much additional load the national grid can support, addressing current limitations in distribution infrastructure for last-mile connections. This is vital for integrating solar energy and mini hydropower projects.

For floating solar panels, we are receiving investor applications, but we need to complete our study first. This involves consultations with stakeholders, particularly regarding shared water bodies like Lake Victoria. Once finalised, we anticipate a significant increase in solar installations in these water bodies.