Uganda’s Ambitious Tenfold Growth Economic Vision: Harmonizing Fiscal Discipline with Economic Growth
World Business Journal talks to Ramathan Ggoobi, the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury at the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development, about Uganda’s ambitious economic growth goals. The nation aims to expand its economy tenfold by 2040. Starting in the 2025/2026 financial year, Uganda will implement a new fiscal consolidation strategy focused on budget reprioritization and increased fiscal discipline. These measures are intended to reduce reliance on external borrowing and nurture a self-reliant and resilient economic landscape.
What are the key elements of the Tenfold Growth Strategy aimed at elevating the economy from $50 bn to $500 bn by 2040?
We have based our strategy for achieving tenfold economic growth on four key areas.
In agro-industrialization, our goal is to enhance the agricultural value chain by addressing low productivity, insufficient value addition, and limited market access. By focusing on these areas, we aim to generate approximately $50 bn by 2040.
For the tourism sector, our objective is to increase visitor numbers, extend the duration of their stays, and elevate their spending levels. We will focus on enhancing branding and marketing initiatives to strengthen our country’s appeal while also investing in infrastructure upgrades at key tourist locations to support sustainable growth. This will generate an additional $50 bn in revenue over the next 15 years.
The third focus area is mineral-based industrialization through local processing. Our government has banned the export of raw minerals to encourage in-country beneficiation. Uganda boasts abundant mineral resources, including gold and lithium, and is advancing in the oil and gas sector with plans for initial oil production and a refinery. To achieve our goals over the next 15 years, aiming for over $110 bn in revenue, we seek investors for capital and technology. Our priority is to partner with those who can provide expertise to enhance our mineral processing capabilities.
The fourth area of focus will be STI and ICT, which is vital for driving digital transformation, innovation, and research. We plan to build on our existing work in developing the pathogen economy, automobiles with Kiira Motors, and pharmaceuticals including vaccines.
Supporting scientists more actively will help us strengthen the knowledge economy. We plan to raise R&D funding to 2-2.5% of GDP, anticipating that this will catalyze innovation, enhance productivity, and stimulate a growth multiplier effect across industries.
These are some of the key actions we plan to undertake.
What impact will the Rationalisation of Government Agencies and Public Expenditure (Rapex) program have on reducing bureaucracy and increasing savings?
The Rapex program aims to streamline government operations by gradually rationalizing agencies, ministries, and departments, minimizing resistance and maintaining a focus on critical areas. With backing from the President and Cabinet, and despite mixed parliamentary support, the program seeks to eliminate duplications and simplify processes, ultimately saving the government at least 1 trillion shillings annually. The private sector will also gain from more efficient interactions with fewer government entities, further reducing bureaucracy.
How do you plan to achieve a 98% reduction in external borrowing and a 20% cut in government spending?
Starting in the 2025/2026 financial year, we are implementing a fiscal consolidation strategy to refine our budget priorities. By repurposing funds from outdated priorities to new ones, we’ve avoided duplicating past budget allocations.
We’ve saved over UGX 1.7 trillion by rationalizing expenses on travel, workshops, and frequent purchases such as cars and office furniture, allowing us to fund priorities without borrowing. For the past three years, instead of introducing disruptive new taxes, we’ve focused on improving tax compliance and administration efficiency.
Prioritizing fiscal discipline minimizes the necessity for borrowing. For instance, last year we turned down a $414 million loan with an 8.4% interest rate, choosing to reduce expenditures instead. This decision illustrates how focusing on fiscal restraint can be both effective and non-disruptive.
How are you leveraging green financing and green bonds to stimulate economic growth?
Our climate financing unit is successfully mobilizing green funding by ensuring most of our infrastructure and agricultural projects meet green financing criteria, including the Standard Gauge Railway. We are collaborating with the World Bank on climate-smart agriculture projects and developing special-purpose vehicles to introduce new financing models like Sukuk and Panda bonds. While exploring green bonds, we aim to attract new investors rather than simply shifting from traditional bonds without genuine benefits. We’re also considering infrastructure and diaspora bonds to diversify our public investment financing model.
