Mozambique’s $20bn LNG Project Reaches Critical Stage as ExxonMobil Nears Investment Decision

Mozambique’s long-awaited ambition to become a significant player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is approaching a key milestone, with ExxonMobil expected to decide later this year whether to proceed with its proposed $20 billion Rovuma LNG project in Cabo Delgado.

In an interview with Portuguese news agency Lusa, Mozambican President Daniel Chapo said discussions with ExxonMobil were progressing and that the government was working toward a possible final investment decision (FID) in September 2026. He described the project as one of the largest private investment opportunities on the African continent.

For Mozambique, the decision represents a defining moment for its energy strategy. A positive FID would unlock one of the country’s most ambitious industrial projects, potentially bringing billions of dollars in capital investment, supporting infrastructure development and strengthening the country’s position in the global LNG supply chain.

For international investors, however, the project also highlights both the opportunity and complexity of developing large-scale energy assets in emerging markets.

A Global LNG Opportunity

The ExxonMobil-led Rovuma LNG project is located in Area 4 of the offshore Rovuma Basin, an area containing some of the world’s largest undeveloped natural gas reserves.

The project is expected to produce approximately 18 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, placing it among Africa’s largest planned gas developments. If completed, the facility would significantly increase Mozambique’s export capacity and establish the country as a more important supplier in the global LNG market.

The investment comes at a time when energy security has become a central concern for governments and industries worldwide. Although many economies are accelerating investment in renewable energy, natural gas remains an important part of energy strategies, particularly for countries seeking reliable power supplies and diversified energy sources.

For energy companies, LNG projects of this scale offer access to long-term demand, particularly in markets across Asia and other regions where natural gas remains an important fuel for electricity generation and industrial growth.

Mozambique’s LNG Sector Enters a New Phase

Rovuma LNG is one of several major LNG developments planned for Mozambique’s northern coast.

The project was delayed after militant attacks in Cabo Delgado in 2021 forced ExxonMobil to suspend activities and declare force majeure. In November 2025, ExxonMobil announced that it had lifted the declaration, an important step toward restarting the development process and moving closer to a final investment decision.

The wider LNG industry in Mozambique has also begun to regain momentum.

TotalEnergies is progressing with its Area 1 LNG project, which resumed activity after a prolonged suspension linked to security concerns. The development is expected to begin LNG deliveries in 2029, with planned production capacity of approximately 13 mtpa.

Meanwhile, Italy’s Eni has already established LNG production through the Coral Sul floating LNG facility, which began operations in 2022. The company is also advancing the Coral Norte floating LNG project, which received final investment approval in 2025 and is expected to increase production capacity from the Coral development area from 2028.

Together, these developments could position Mozambique as one of Africa’s most important LNG exporters.

The Investment Opportunity and the Risks

From an investment perspective, Mozambique offers a combination of significant resource potential and strategic relevance. Its offshore gas reserves provide access to a large-scale LNG opportunity at a time when countries are seeking more diversified energy supply chains.

Successful development of the LNG projects could generate substantial economic benefits, including foreign direct investment, employment opportunities, infrastructure development and increased government revenues.

However, investors will continue to monitor several challenges.

Security remains a key factor. Cabo Delgado has experienced years of instability, and maintaining safe operating conditions will be essential for the successful delivery of large-scale projects.

Execution risk is another important consideration. LNG developments require billions of dollars in upfront investment, complex engineering and long construction periods. Delays, rising costs, financing conditions and changes in global energy markets can all affect project economics.

The broader energy transition also creates a more complex investment environment. While LNG demand remains strong, companies and governments are increasingly balancing energy security needs with emissions reduction targets.

A Strategic Decision for Mozambique’s Energy Future

A final investment decision from ExxonMobil would mark an important turning point for Mozambique’s LNG ambitions and could reshape the country’s role in global energy markets.

The project still depends on successful execution, continued security improvements and favourable market conditions. However, after years of delays, progress toward a decision signals renewed confidence in Mozambique’s potential as a major LNG producer.

For investors watching Africa’s energy sector, the ExxonMobil decision will be closely followed. The outcome could influence not only the future of Rovuma LNG but also Mozambique’s broader economic development strategy for decades to come.